Golden Globes 2017 – predictions

I’m a huge fan of awards season as I generally like most nominated films and like to nerd out about who should, could and will win and why. I’m not as deep as the websites dedicated to that but nonetheless I’ll try my best to predict the winners without having seen the majority of the movies.

The host for the evening will be Jimmy Fallon, whom I generally like and who can definitely be funny. However, he tends to crack up during jokes, which might not be the best trait for the opening monologue unless they pre-record a sketch. The Globes tend to be more fun and entertaining, also due to the lack of boring categories. I’m confident that the show will be fun, it might just be lacking the coarse humor of Ricky Gervais (who last year certainly didn’t outperform his previous performances). I will not talk too much about snubs as it’s hard to judge without having had the chance to see the movies.


Film categories:

Best Motion Picture, Drama
Hacksaw Ridge
Lion
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

A nice collection of films and I wouldn’t mind any film winning except for Lion (I somehow dislike Dev Patel). I have long believed Manchester by the Sea to be the absolute favorite (and still think it is for the Oscars besides La La Land) but I wouldn’t rule out Moonlight to win. I think Moonlight is the film most different from the others in this category. Hell or High Water can be glad to be nominated and Hacksaw Ridge has too much Mel Gibson stuff going on. I’m missing Arrival in this category and also would have believed Fences or Loving would be nominated for best picture. My guess is Moonlight I believe as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association likes to make political statements and the film about the black gay person might be deserving of a reward of its boldness. The number-two choice is Manchester by the Sea. I would be more happy about Moonlight.
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
20th Century Women
Deadpool
La La Land
Florence Foster Jenkins
Sing Street

I was certain Deadpool was going to be nominated for daring to be vastly different. The other movies are the obvious choices for this category. I like the Globes for including some smaller films like Sing Street in the comedy category and raising awareness for them. I am a thousand percent certain that La La Land will take this one home and I would love that. Damien Chazelle’s bold reinvigoration of the musical looks amazing and I’ve been looking forward to seeing this like a child for months. I’m predicting this will and in my top 3 for 2017 (it is released next week in Germany).

Best Performance By an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Amy Adams – Arrival
Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie

This will probably be a close race between Amy Adams and Natalie Portman. Portman has already received some awards for her portrayal of Jackie Kennedy but her performance seems to be controversial. Amy Adams, however, was amazing, it might just be a bit too understated to receive awards praise. I see Ruth Negga having outsider chances but my guess is Natalie Portman. I wish Amy Adams will win as she continues to have an amazing choice of interesting, strong roles. Instead of Jessica Chastain for a film I’ve never even heard about, I would have rather had Amy Adams get another nod for Nocturnal Animals. Outstanding year for her.

Best Performance By an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
Lily Collins – Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone – La La Land
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

First of all, could be please stop nominating Meryl Streep for everything?! This ludicrousness was at its height when she was nominated for Into The Woods.

I’m glad some young talented actresses were acknowledged for their leading roles in independent dramas. I like Lily Collins but she hasn’t quite made her breakthrough yet. The daughter of Phil Collins starred in Blind Side and The Mortal Instruments (one of the few highlights in that) and Rules Don’t Apply was a festival darling (btw also starring next Han Solo Alden Ehrenreich). I’m sure Annette Benning has the second-best chances for her Austen costume drama but I would bet not little money on Emma Stone winning and as someone with a massive crush on her, I think it is about time 😀 The trailer looks as if she would enchant the audience.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton – Loving
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences

A very strong field of competitors and weirdly just two best picture nominees are represented in this category. Andrew Garfield gets his first awards nod and I feel I won’t be the last one, Viggo Mortensen is probably too quirky to win. Joel Edgerton keeps putting out good movies so he probably deserves it. Casey Affleck and Denzel are getting praised left and right but Washington received the honorary award for his lifetime achievements last year (and also the Tony Award for his stage performance of Fences), which is why I see Affleck as the frontrunner.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg – Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel – Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals

Here we have a clear favorite. Mahershala Ali (Remy Danton from House of Cards) is universally praised. I’m also certain that Aaron Taylor-Johnson, who gives his best performance to date, will not be nominated for an Academy Award because the role is too dark and gritty. Of the remaining three, I believe Bridges could have a minor chance to steal the award.

Best Performance by Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Another tight race between two favorites. Viola Davis, who received a Tony Award, and Michelle Williams.  It’s nice that Hidden Figures could get at least one acting nod. The other two aren’t surprises either. My bet is on Viola Davis, who has been having a run for some years.

Best Director, Motion Picture
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Very difficult. All of these gentlemen deserve it but I’m betting on Chazelle for doing something that no one had believed in. Usually, it’s awarded to a best picture so Jenkins and Lonergan might also have their shot. I love that they acknowledged Tom Ford (for his second movie) and that they can block all this talk about Gibson and appreciate his art.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical, or Comedy
Colin Farrell – The Lobster
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill – War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool

It would be a huge surprise if Reynolds took this home. My bet is clearly on Gosling as the movie is everyone’s darling and Gosling hasn’t gotten much awards praise yet. The only other serious competitor is Colin Farrell in the weird The Lobster (the director previously did the even more weird Dogtooth). Hugh Grant is said to be stronger than his average performance and Hill probably is getting a nod for his consistently funny output.

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
La La Land – Damien Chazelle
Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford
Moonlight – Barry Jenkins
Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan

I feel that is a pretty damn good selection. Either one deserves it but Tom Ford might get his appreciation here due to the too strong competition in the director category. My bet, however, is again on La La Land as it defied all expectations. It’s also possible that Jenkins or Lonergan get a consolation prize for not winning as director. Interestingly, four of the five nominees are writer-directors.

Original Score, Motion Picture
Moonlight – Nicholas Brittell
La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
Arrival – Jóhann Jóhannsson
Lion – Dustin O’Halloran & Hauschka
Hidden Figures  – Benjamin Wallfisch, Pharrell Williams & Hans Zimmer

I want Arrival to win that because of the otherworldly atmosphere the score creates in cooperation with the visuals. La La Land probably also has a fantastic score but it’s probably rather the songs that will be awarded.

Best Motion Picture, Animated
Kubo And The Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a  Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia

This is hard. Zootopia is on that same top-notch level of Inside Out but I predict that Kubo earned the love of the critics, which it will not get from the academy.

Best Original Song, Motion Picture
Can’t Stop the Feeling – Trolls
City of Stars – La La Land
Faith – Sing
Gold – Gold
How Far I’ll Go – Moana

This should go to La La Land if all the fuss is even slightly appropriate.The only other serious competitor is Disney with Moana.

Best Motion Picture, Foreign Language
Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

As a German, fingers crossed for Toni Erdmann. After rocking every festival and receiving standing ovations in Cannes, it should win. Elle (Verhoeven) and Salesman (director of A Separation) have minor chances.


TV categories

This will be even more difficult as I’m not up to date at all with this year’s shows.

Best Television Series, Drama
The Crown (Netflix)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
This Is Us (NBC)
Westworld (HBO)

Here, everything is possible. Game of Thrones has had an outstanding season but the HFPA tends to celebrate new shows. Westworld might be a bit too controversial and Stranger Things might steal it although I don’t think the critics dig the nostalgia factor that much. Surprise nomination This Is Us has no chance in hell (IMDb rating 8,9 ?!). So my bet goes to The Crown, which was universally received very well.

Best Television Series, Musical or Comedy
Black-ish
Atlanta
Transparent
Veep – Die Vizepräsidentin
Mozart in the Jungle

This will definitely go to Atlanta. The new show tendency definitely applies here. Transparent and Mozart got their nods already, Veep gets on my nerves for dominating the Emmys.

Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
American Crime (ABC)
The Dresser (starz)
The Night Manager (AMC)
The Night Of (HBO)
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)

OJ will take home every award it is nominated for. This has been a phenomenon. The Night Of might be a critics’ favorite but that won’t suffice. Btw, what the heck is The Dresser?

Best Performance By an Actor in a Television Series, Drama
Rami Malek – Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan
Matthew Rhys – The Americans
Billy Bob Thornton – Goliath

This will be a hard battle between Malek and Rhys. Odenkirk won last year, which is why Malek has good chances to catch up with the love for Mr. Robot from last years’ Globes. Matthew Rhys has also consistently impressed so maybe his time has come. Thornton might have a little outsider chance.

Best Performance By an Actor in a Television Series, Musical, or Comedy
Anthony Anderson – Black-ish
Gael García Bernal – Mozart in the Jungle
Donald Glover – Atlanta
Nick Nolte – Graves
Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent

1000 % Glover. He also created the show so it’s not a hard decision.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Riz Ahmed – The Night Of
Bryan Cranston – All The Way
Tom Hiddleston – The Night Manager
John Turturro – The Night Of
Courtney B. Vance – The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Definitely Courtney B. Vance after already winning the Emmy. The others obviously were great, too.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Sterling K. Brown – The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Hugh Laurie – The Night Manager
John Lithgow – The Crown
Christian Slater – Mr. Robot
John Travolta – The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Same here with Sterlin K Brown. I personally find Slater a bit overrated; I think his win was a bit of the Michael-Keaton-comeback-of-old-star-effect. If not Brown, then Lithgow will steal it.

Best Performance by an Actress in a TV Series, Drama
Caitriona Balfe – Outlander
Claire Foy – The Crown
Keri Russell – The Americans
Winona Ryder – Stranger Things
Evan Rachel Wood – Westworld

Also very difficult. I think Wood will take it but Foy and especially Ryder get a lot of love for their performances. Russell also deserves it, similarly to Matthew Rhys. The Americans probably will keep being overlooked.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Olivia Colman – The Night Manager
Lena Headey – Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz – This Is Us
Mandy Moore – This Is Us
Thandie Newton – Westworld

Although Cersei had a strong season, this will probably go to Newton. Colman might have a  slight chance but the Westworld hype will beat that.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Felicity Huffman – American Crime
Riley Keough – The Girlfriend Experience
Sarah Paulson – The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Charlotte Rampling – London Spy
Kerry Washington – Confirmation

Sarah Paulson. Haven’t nearly heard as much buzz as for her performance. Although I recently liked Keough in Mad Max Fury Road and American Honey, she doesn’t stand a chance as no one watched The Girlfriend Experience.

Best Performance By an Actress in a Television Series, Musical, or Comedy
Rachel Bloom – Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Sarah Jessica Parker – Divorce
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep – Die Vizepräsidentin
Gina Rodriguez – Jane the Virgin
Issa Rae – Insecure
Tracee Ellis Ross – Black-ish

This will go to newcomer Issa Rae. Bloom won last year and JLD also gets on my nerves. Rodriguez won a couple of years ago so there are no real alternatives.

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