Golden Globes 2018 – My predictions

The Golden Globes have a questionable reputation as insignificant awards by an obscure circle of international film critics. However, I like that they combine TV and film and the award show is usually way more crisp and entertaining than the Oscars. What I‘m not crazy about is the separation of drama and comedy/musical (which is an issue in itself), as it can only lead to weird categorizations. Moreover, the Golden Globes are one of the first major awards and can be a litmus test for the Academy Awards.

I think this year‘s host, Seth Myers, is not the best to tackle the #metoo issue. I feel like he‘s not cynical and edgy enough to parallel Ricky Gervais‘s opening monologues.

I will try to make some predictions of the winners and upsets. I will sort the nominees in the order I would expect them to win. Obviously, I haven‘t seen all of the nominees (actually, I‘ve only seen a few) but there will be some comments on the decisions.

Best motion picture — drama

Call Me By Your Name

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water

The Post

Dunkirk

I believe the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will go for the critics‘ darling, also to promote that mostly unknown film. I could also see Three Billboards winning, as it features excellent writing and performances but to me, the movie doesn‘t feel as strong thematically as I believe the others might be. The Post is pretty oscarbaity but I don‘t know if it‘s globes-bait, which is why I believe The Shape of Water, which is the more artistic movie, has better chances. There‘s no way in hell Dunkirk will take that award as it‘s way too popular and successful even though I would like to see Chris Nolan win a best picture award. This year‘s selection of nominees is pretty strong in my opinion. However, I would have loved to see some recognition for Blade Runner 2049, my favorite movie of the year.
Best motion picture — musical or comedy

Lady Bird

The Greatest Showman
Get Out

The Disaster Artist
I, Tonya

I would guess that the best reviewed movie ever on Rottentomatoes would win the critics‘ choice for that one. If not, I see some chances for The Greatest Showman, as the HFPA pushed this movie into the nominees before anyone else has reviewed the movie. I was kinda sceptical and it is pretty awesome so this might be the dark horse candidate, especially because if you have an actual musical in this weird category, it might have some good chances. The nomination for Get Out is a joke, not because it doesn‘t deserve the buzz (it‘s actually my second favorite movie of the year) but because it‘s clearly not a comedy. I wouldn‘t complain if Get Out won a globe but I would much rather see Daniel Kaluuya win rather than seeing another The Martian situation. The Disaster Artist didn‘t blow critics away and I, Tonya is even more controversial, I think, and only has chances in the best actress category.

Best performance by an actress in a motion picture — drama

Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)
Michelle Williams (All The Money In The World)

This will be decided between Frances McDormand and Sally Hawkins, with my money clearly lying on McDormand. Her portrayal of a mother whose grief turns into bitter aggression is funny, touching and something we haven‘t seen on screen that often. Sally Hawkins is supposed to be one of the best things about Shape of Water and I haven‘t heard too much about Chastain or Williams. Streep‘s nomination is the obligatory recognition of her unquestionable talent but I kinda hold a grudge against her for being nominated obnoxiously often 😀

Best performance by an actor in a motion picture — drama

Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Tom Hanks (The Post)

This is tough. I haven‘t seen a single movie in the category. However, I do believe that the actor who brings in the emotion into the likely best picture winner has the best chances. The other movies didn‘t generate too much buzz. Gary Oldman looks very transformed as Winston Churchill, Daniel Day-Lewis always gets nominated but I haven‘t heard much buzz for that one. I heard some good things about Denzel but the movie has gotten rather mixed reviews. Tom Hanks is probably fine but not exceptional, I would think.

Best performance by an actress in a motion picture — musical or comedy

Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

Judi Dench (Victoria & Abdul)
Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker)

Again, this will be decided between the first two in my list. Saoirse Ronan has consistently delivered excellent work and I think she‘s ripe for her award. Moreover, coming-of-age performances play well in Hollywood. Margot Robbie apparently is electric in her performance of this unconventional character of Tonya Harding and this is mostly a one-woman show so the weight of the movie is on her shoulders. Emma Stone looks fine but she has already won and her portrayal of Billie Jean King doesn‘t look like an outstanding performance. I haven‘t even heard of the other two movies and Dench and Mirren don‘t need more recognition than the nod with the nomination.

Best performance by an actor in a motion picture — musical or comedy

Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman)

Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver)

This is a no-brainer for me. Even though James Franco looks transformed and hits Tommy Wiseau pretty well, he does not come close to the complex play Kaluuya has to pull off in this subtle „social thriller“, as debut director Jordan Peele likes to call his humorous horror film. Hugh Jackman is fine as P.T. Barnum in Showman but I don‘t see any chances. Nominating Elgort for a best performance is a stretch – as much as I enjoyed Baby Driver for its action, which is basically a visualization of the soundtrack, I could never really relate to Baby. I feel like ever since Foxcatcher, Carell is taken more seriously as a character actor but I feel like you can‘t have a misogynistic asshole character win this award, not this year.

Best performance by an actress in a supporting role in any motion picture

Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)

Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Hong Chau (Downsizing)

I feel pretty confident about that one. Allison Janney also is consistently superb in her output and this shows another facet of her play. I heard good things about Mary J. Blige but I don‘t think she‘ll get more than a nod. Haven‘t even heard about any good performances in Downsizing and Octavia Spencer keeps collecting nominations with very good but rarely exceptional performances. Laurie Metcalf is the only one I could imagine would steal this because the mother-daughter relationship seems pretty central to that movie.

Best performance by an actor in a supporting role in any motion picture

Christopher Plummer (All The Money In The World)

Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

This will be a statement against Kevin Spacey and Weinsteingate. The movie will be honored for making the effort to reshoot a majority of it and cut out Spacey. It has gotten surprisingly good reviews and Plummer is a very well-reputed character actor. I enjoyed Rockwell‘s performance a lot even though it was a bit cartoony at times. Don‘t know anything about Hammer or Jenkins other than the movies and their performances were received pretty well. Willem Dafoe was more than decent but I don‘t quite get the buzz the movie and his performance are getting.

Best director — motion picture

Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

Ridley Scott (All The Money In The World)

Steven Spielberg (The Post)

Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

I feel like del Toro has a more than realistic chance to snatch this because his movie looks just stunning. Moreover, it was received very well. Same holds true for Nolan, who I feel has not as much credit with critics but whose concept for Dunkirk is very unique. Scott might have a minimal chance for getting rid of Spacey. Spielberg did an important movie, so he‘s nominated. I feel like Three Billboards is too unspectacular direction-wise.

Best screenplay — motion picture

Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)

Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor (The Shape of Water)
Aaron Sorkin (Molly’s Game)
Liz Hannah, Josh Singer (The Post)

Greta Gerwig with her writing and directorial debut is likely to win here. The movie is received outstandingly well and a coming-of-age story lives from the story and the dialogue (and the performances), for which the screenplay is responsible. Similarly, the script for Three Billboards is similarly strong and is funny, thought-provoking and goes into unexpected directions. Aaron Sorkin is always a candidate for this category but this movie didn‘t generate too much buzz (maybe he shouldn‘t have also directed it). The Shape of Water probably is an original and unusual story as well but I don‘t quite see it winning but I wouldn‘t be sad if I were wrong.

Best motion picture — animated

Coco

The Breadwinner
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
The Boss Baby

How the hell is Boss baby nominated here? This is difficult because I‘ve only heard of 3 of these movies. However, Coco is a pretty strong Pixar entry, so that‘s an easy bet. Ferdinand is getting pretty good reviews as well but that‘s another league than Pixar.

Best motion picture — foreign language

The Square (Sweden, Germany, France)

In The Fade (Germany, France)
Loveless
(Russia)

A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)

The Square is pretty hyped but so was Fatih Akin‘s movie from Germany, which won Diane Kruger a Palme d‘Or. Obviously, I haven‘t seen any of them yet, as it so often is with this category. I believe I heard some good things about the Russian entry but this is mostly guesswork. If they‘re going with the best known (like at the Oscars, where the Academy seldom watches all nominees, I‘m certain), The Square will win.

Best original score — motion picture

Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)

Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk)

Jonny Greenwood (Phantom Thread)
John Williams (The Post)
Carter Burwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Difficult again. I‘ve only seen two nominees and honestly, the Billboards score was neither memorable nor particularly striking. Dunkirk was fine but doesn‘t deserve an award, I think. I could imagine Shape of Water having a wonderfully atmospheric score and Desplat is an amazing composer. If Phantom Thread gets a second nomination apart from Daniel Day-Lewis, this has to mean it‘s good. John Williams‘s score is probably decent and appropriate but I can‘t see The Post winning an award for its score.

Best original song — motion picture

“This Is Me” (The Greatest Showman)

“Remember Me” (Coco)

“The Star” (The Star)

“Mighty River” (Mudbound)

“Home” (Ferdinand)

Both of my favorites in this category are tear-jerking, emotional songs and would both deserve it. However, I feel the musical has better chances for best song even if Coco is also about music. The Star sounds fine but I haven‘t even heard of the film.



Best television series — drama

The Handmaid’s Tale

This Is Us

Game of Thrones
Stranger Things
The Crown

Everything but Handmaid‘s Tale would baffle me. This is a critics‘ darling and has been super hyped. This is Us is also apparently way better than everyone thought. Game of Thrones had a few phenomenal episodes but had some issues this season. Stranger Things is incredibly hyped but I don‘t think critics are digging it as much as audiences. The Crown is also supposed to be very solid but I believe they have already won last year and the HFPA really likes to laud new shows.

Best television series — musical or comedy

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Master of None
SMILF
Black-ish
Will & Grace

I‘m pretty certain that they will give this to the surprise hit Mrs. Maisel. It only came out recently but the people that are watching this apparent gem are loving it. Master of None had a phenomenal second season so I would totally give it to Ansari and his team. The romance plotline was beautiful, the beginning in Italy was funny and the Thanksgiving episode is one of the best episodes of TV of this year. SMILF is also a new show and I‘ve heard good things about it but that‘s way too unknown. Black-ish is probably more than solid but not award-worthy from what I know and I don‘t give a rat‘s ass about Will & Grace.

Best television limited series or motion picture made for television

Big Little Lies
Feud: Bette And Joan

Top of The Lake: China Girl

Fargo
The Sinner

The category with the most unknown stuff. Big Little Lies was pretty hyped so I‘m quite sure it has good chances. Feud is also nominated a number of times. Top of the Lake has already won for its first run and I haven‘t felt a similar buzz with China Girl. Fargo is consistently well received and I don‘t know too much about The Sinner.

Best performance by an actress in a limited series or a motion picture made for television

Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies)
Susan Sarandon (Feud: Bette And Joan)

Jessica Lange (Feud: Bette And Joan)
Jessica Biel (The Sinner)
Reese Witherspoon (Big Little Lies)

I believe Kidman has already won the Emmy for that but Sarandon might have good chances too. I would have liked to see Reese Witherspoon with better chances but that‘s not gonna happen in this incredibly competitive category.

Best performance by an actor in a limited series or a motion picture made for television

Jude Law (The Young Pope)

Kyle MacLachlan (Twin Peaks)

Robert De Niro (The Wizard of Lies)
Geoffrey Rush (Genius)

Ewan McGregor (Fargo)

Although the Twin Peaks return was incredibly hyped, I do think that Law‘s unusual role will do the trick. De Niro has tiny chances and neither McGregor nor Rush will win even though they probably did a great job, too, because Fargo has been nominated too often already and I don‘t even know what Genius is 😀

Best performance by an actress in a television series — drama

Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)

Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Deuce)

Katherine Langford (13 Reasons Why)

Caitriona Balfe (Outlander)
Claire Foy (The Crown)

Elisabeth Moss will snatch her second Globe, it‘s a safe bet. No other show has generated the same hype and Moss is a fantastic actress. It probably also has the most important message. Gyllenhaal also has generated some buzz but that is in no way comparable to Handmaid‘s Tale. Katherine Langford probably was good but I don‘t believe the HFPA will award this price to a teenager show nor to a historical sex show. Claire Foy already won last year so I guess she will not again.

Best performance by an actor in a television series — drama

Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
Jason Bateman (Ozark)
Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)

Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)

Freddie Highmore (The Good Doctor)

Brown has generated a lot of hype for himself after OJ last year and apparently is excellent in This Is Us. The only serious competitor I think is Bateman, who doesn‘t play his usual comedic role in Ozark. I don‘t know anyone who watches Ray Donovan but apparently Liev Schreiber must be phenomenal because he keeps getting nominated for everything. The Good Doctor just doesn‘t feel like Globe-material and Odenkirk already got his awards love.

Best performance by an actress in a television series — musical or comedy

Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Frankie Shaw (SMILF)

Alison Brie (GLOW)
Pamela Adlon (Better Things)
Issa Rae (Insecure)

Wow, this is maybe the hardest category. I could see any of these nominees win but I suspect it will be decided between the first two. These are pretty much one-woman-shows and because I believe the hype is stronger for Mrs. Maisel and because I liked Brosnahan in House of Cards, I see her as a frontrunner. GLOW is a surprise hit but I consider that more of an ensemble cast from what I know. Insecure is a gem that‘s supposed to be very clever and Issa Rae also created it, if I‘m not mistaken but she didn‘t win it last year for her first season so I kinda doubt it.
Best performance by an actor in a television series — musical or comedy

Aziz Ansari (Master of None)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)

William H. Macy (Shameless)

Kevin Bacon (I Love Dick)
Eric McCormack (Will & Grace)

It is out of the question for me that Ansari needs to win here. For his 3-minute cab ride alone, where he realizes he fell in love with Francesca, he deserves this price. He has amazing chemistry with his fellow cast members and especially with Francesca. Anderson already won, Macy probably, too (or at least he‘s been nominated a lot) and I don‘t think the other two are anywhere near that good.

Best performance by an actress in a supporting role in a series, limited series or motion picture made for television

Ann Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale)

Laura Dern (Big Little Lies)
Chrissy Metz (This Is Us)

Shailene Woodley (Big Little Lies)
Michelle Pfeiffer (The Wizard of Lies)

Clear favorite with Ann Dowd, who has also won the Emmy, I think. Laura Dern is her strongest competitor and the other three I don‘t see in the same realm.

Best performance by an actor in a supporting role in a series, limited series or motion picture made for television

David Harbour (Stranger Things)
Alexander Skarsgård (Big Little Lies)

Alfred Molina (Feud: Bette And Joan)
David Thewlis (Fargo)

Christian Slater (Mr. Robot)

I have no idea who could win this, so this is pure guesswork. Slater already won the globe so they might wanna give one award to audience favorite Stranger Things.

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